Climate Changes in Zimbabwe

     The major impacts that effect my area include: livelihoods, health, and economics (Human and managed systems); terrestrial ecosystems (Biological systems); and Rivers, lakes, floods, and drought (Physical systems). The key regional risks are generally centered on Economics and drought, specifically unstable livelihoods due to the increasing drought and water shortage. Many people work in agriculture and without water, they will have no work.

       The whole African continent is forecasted to have a climate shift to a drier and warmer climate. Scientists attribute this to an increase in sea surface temperature. Warmer surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have caused more inversion layers in the atmosphere. What this means for Africa is that clouds actually cannot form in these layers because the air sinks, thus preventing any sort of cloud formation. The less clouds there are means less water for rainfall.  However, there are many large regions in Africa with very little variability, and the data from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is inaccurate. This makes the predictions of the scientists much harder for these regions.

     Africa unfortunately has a much bigger problem than just drought however. Much of Africa is extremely poor and their lack of resources and money make it hard for the region to deal with any obstacles. Many in my region are working in agriculture, and with the increase of the risk of drought, many will find it hard to produce food for their livelihood. This will increase the number of families that are starving on a continent that already must cope with mass starvation. One of the biggest things we need as humans is also at risk. Many African citizens do not have a reliable and clean water source, and it is thought that the number affected by this will reach the hundreds of millions in just a few years. Climate change is putting more stress on the problems this region already has. They are already struggling to deal with the problems at hand, and with the drought and inefficient infrastructure, Africa will not even be able to support its people.

     To me, I feel that the most interesting threat is the increase in the amount without access to clean water. They already have a huge problem making good water accessible to their population but with the increase in drought, what will happen? This increase in water shortage will also hit home economically. Most of Zimbabwe and Africa rely on agricultural means as sources of income and livelihood. This will decrease the amount of available food for the whole population, and eventually they will not be able to sustain their growing population, and their future becomes hazy.

Nordpil.com

www.climatecommunication.org

Severe Weather in Zimbabwe

Tornadoes:    

The obvious description of a tornado is a massive rotating column of air. How in fact though does this cyclone begin to form? The answer to this is simply wind shear, which is when winds at two different altitudes blow at different speeds creating wind shear. This causes a horizontal rotating column of air, which is called the mesocyclone. If this column of air meets with a supercell updraft, the spin tightens, and goes from horizontal to vertical. The rain and hail in the thunderstorm then causes the funnel to touch down to the ground, creating a tornado.

      In the U.S. most tornados move from Southwest to Northeast or West to East. This is because the tornado themselves move with the thunderstorm that they are associated with, and they move in such a way due to the warm high pressure gulf air meeting the cold air from the North creating an upper level jet stream through the country, which moves from West to East with a wave like pattern.

     Fortunately, Zimbabwe rarely experiences tornados if they ever do. I could not come up with an accurate number of tornadoes each year, but from reading some articles from national geographic, it seems that it is rare to even see one every few years, with most of the sightings being actually just waterspouts. The reason it is uncommon is because of Zimbabwe’s unique geographic location. It is protected from the NE trades and even though it is located relatively close to a very active spot in South Africa, the island of Madagascar actually protects Zimbabwe from the prevailing winds and diverts the air down south where tornados occur much more frequently. Each year, the U.S. experiences 1253 tornadoes on average.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/

    I personally think that tornados have increased over time due to global warming. This is because tornadoes are associated with warm, and moist air because that is what is necessary for formation of the thunderstorms that these tornados are attached to. So with the increase in global temperature due to our release of greenhouse gasses, we are directly increasing that amount of warm and moist air, which in turn increases storm production and the tornadoes that come with that.

Hurricanes:

    The three big requirements for a hurricane are Warm ocean temperatures of at least 80 degrees F or higher, a deep and warm ocean layer that reaches down to at least 200m, and the coriolis effect that is needed to start the rotation for a hurricane and this occurs between > 5 Degrees N, S.

    The three main regions where hurricanes occur are the Atlantic and the East Pacific (Hurricanes), in the Indian Ocean near Australia (Cyclones), and off the coast of China and Indonesia (Typhoons).

     The general path of Hurricanes in the US start from the Atlantic, then move West where they come closer to our coasts where they then begin to move in a Northeastern fashion. The reason they move in this fashion is because at the origin, the trade winds move it up and to the west. When it comes closer to the U.S. however, the hurricanes meet our prevailing Westerlies, which change its direction to Southwest to Northeast relatively to our country. Hurricanes are actually very uncommon in Zimbabwe as well. This again is because of the unique geographical location of Zimbabwe and how Madagascar protects it from the prevailing winds as well as diverts the moving air to lower latitudes. This basically spares Zimbabwe altogether from the destruction of Hurricanes so that makes the average number 0 hurricanes a year. The average number of hurricanes in the U.S. stands to be a little higher with an impressive range of anywhere between 2 – 12 a year in the Atlantic Basin.

http://scienceline.ucsb.edu/getkey.php?key=1086

Daily Weather in Harare

    My country’s capital city is Harare. My 3-day forecast will cover the following days: 4/04, 4/05, and 4/06. The forecasted high for my first day is 79 Degrees F, and the forecasted low is 60 Degrees F with a precipitation probability of 0%. The forecasted high of my second day is 79 Degrees F and the forecasted low is 62 Degrees F. The precipitation probability of this day is 5% early in the day and increases to 35% in the evening. The forecasted high for my third day is 81 Degrees F and the projected low is 61 Degrees F. The chance of precipitation is 20% in the day and up to 80% in the evening. The average pressure over the three days is 29.89 in. The pressure decreased over the three-day period. The average wind speed over the five-day period was 7 MPH. The wind speed decreases over the three-day period.

    There are clouds in Zimbabwe, however, they are very far away from the capital currently. Mosto f the southern area of the clouds are low and warm, but the northern section that is crossing into Zimbabwe seem to be colder. Around the capital currently, there actually is no precipitation around my capital currently. In a couple of days however, the precipitation has a very good chance of passing over Harare. The surface characteristics of the capital city seem to be relatively mountainous. There are some lakes to the left of the city and there are heavily forested areas next to those bodies of water. The city itself however seem to be relatively bare of vegetation.

    The isobar pressures I observe are a low center of 1012 and the high pressure of 1016 close to Zimbabwe. In the wider map, we can see higher pressures of 1020, and a high center of 1024 over the ocean. The low centers are actually right to the West of my country and also to the South. Right to the south of my country as well, there seems to be an area where a warm meets a cold front. Also in the zoomed out map, to the far Southwest, ther is another cold meeting a warm front a little further past the high center. Zimbabwe itself though is set in the 1016 pressure are and part of its western tip sits in the low of 1012.

Global and Local Winds in Zimbabwe

Location and Global Wind

    Zimbabwe sits within approximately -15.5 Degrees South to -22.5 Degrees South Latitudes. The longitude it sits in is 25 Degrees East to 33.5 Degrees East. Zimbabwe sits within the lower Southern Hemisphere, and resides in the Hadley Tropical Cell. The wind belt that my country resides in is the Southeasterly Tradewind belt. The tradewinds by nature are extremely predominant in that area and is extremely consistent. This would mean that the wind actually blows Northwest towards the Equator, originating from the southeast of Zimbabwe. It is actually located fairly close to the Subtropical High pressure belt, which is located at 30 Degrees South Latitude. Zimbabwe is located semi-close to the Horse latitudes, which are located around 30-35 Degrees South. However, it is still far enough to not be considered very close, subjective to the person.

Global Wind and Weather & Map

Zimbabwe has a fairly temperate climate, and is considered a subtropical climate.  It is located relatively central to the Hadley cell, which gives it a very mild climate and gives it a mix between the heavy rain of the North ad the drier, desert like climates to the South. The Northern section of Zimbabwe actually receives quite a bit of rain the wet months while the South is much drier and hotter. This is due to the warm moist air rising in the area closest to the equator just North of Zimbabwe and the drier air sinking to the South of Zimbabwe. The pressure belt it is located near to its Southern border dictates the direction of the wind. To the South, there is a subtropical high-pressure system and to the North, there is the equatorial convergence low-pressure system. Naturally air goes from high to low pressure, which explains the predominant Southeasterly winds. This shows that Zimbabwe is located in the Southeasterly Tradewind Belt.  The country of Zimbabwe is actually bisected somewhat from the Southwest towards the Northeast with a relatively high ridge of mountains and plateaus. From the known wind direction, we can see where orographic lift would occur and that the Southern facing slopes are the windward and most likely moist side and the Northern facing slopes are the leeward slopes and most likely quite a bit drier, despite the subtropical climate, and formidable precipitation.

Zimbabwe is located fairly central to the Southern Hadley Cell

Zimbabwe is located almost centrally in the Southern Trades

Local Winds 

 Zimbabwe is actually a fairly mountainous country, especially towards its eastern border. The five types of winds/breezes that are associated with mountains are Valley Breezes, Mountain Breezes, Katabatic Winds, Eddys, and the Chinook/Foehn Winds (Rockies and Alps). Zimbabwe can definitely experience a few of these winds, especially in the Eastern mountainous region. The ones that Zimbabwe can experience are the Valley Breezes, Mountain Breezes, Katabatic Winds, and Eddys. Since the Chinook and Foehn winds are associated with the Rockies and Alps, Zimbabwe cannot experience these. My country unfortunately does not have a coastline. Two breezes associate with coastlines are land and sea breezes. My country cannot experience these breezes, because my country is landlocked in the southern tip of Africa.

Typical Weather and Tourism in Zimbabwe

     Zimbabwe is located in the Southern Hemisphere and boasts a very temperate climate. Since it is located in the S. Hemisphere, the Winter solstice is actually June 21^st, which is opposite to what we are accustomed to. The average maximum temperature during this month is a comfortable 71 degrees. At night however, it can drop decently low to about 44 degrees. The winters in Zimbabwe however, are very dry, and it’s very rare to see any sort of precipitation during the winter months. The average precipitation is only about 3mm of rain during this month.

   The Summer Solstice in Zimbabwe occurs during the month of December on the 22^nd. The average maximum temperature during this month is a warm and comfortable 79.3 degrees. The low during this month is still quite comfortable at 60.4 degrees. Zimbabwe is considered a subtropical climate and has a decently wet summer. During this month, one can count on about 182.7mm of rain precipitation. This might deter some from vacationing during the summer months.

   The Spring Equinox in Zimbabwe occurs on September 23^rd. The maximum average temperature during this month is 83.1 degrees. The average low during this month is quite a bit cooler at 53.1 degrees. This month is actually one of the drier months as well, with the expected rainfall during this month at just 6.5mm of rain precipitation. This would be a fine month to vacation in Zimbabwe due to the slightly warmer temperatures as opposed to July, yet a much less chance of precipitation in the summer months.

     The Autumnal Equinox of Zimbabwe occurs on March 21^st. The maximum average temperature during this month is 79.2 degrees. The average low during this month is 58.1 degrees. This month, a decent amount of rainfall is definitely quite common. The average rain precipitation during this month is 99.1mm.

      Looking through all of this data, we can see that Zimbabwe has an extremely temperate climate with very little variation in temperature throughout the year. The main deterrent of vacationing is more due to the heavy precipitation during the summer months. This however, is balanced out with extremely dry winters which might attract more people.

     Zimbabwe has extremely welcoming temperatures year round, with a very low range of temperatures consistently. The summer months are significantly wetter than the winter months, but still offer a very manageable climate. That being said, to escape the rain, I would recommend very strongly the winter months to escape the rain and still have a very comfortable temperature. One activity you can do here in Zimbabwe is going to visit Victoria Falls, which is the largest curtain of water in the world. Another activity is to visit Hwange National Park, which is rich in wildlife and houses many rare animals. During the recommended tourism season, there really is no weather hazard you will face. Perhaps just the occasional rain, but that is extremely rare. The rainfall during these winter months can hardly be called rain. The average precipitation averages at a measly 3mm per month. This coupled with a comfortable high of 71 degrees and a slightly brisk low of 44 degrees make these months very easy to pack and plan for.

Make Your Zimbabwe Over!

Temperature Controls in the city of Harare in Zimbabwe.

  Today, my post will be about the various temperature controls that have an effect on the climate of the capital city, as well as some other controls that do not apply to the capital. Zimbabwe is quite the surprise with its diverse climate. Its mild temperatures are no coincidence, but instead is a product of many factors, which will be delved into.

      The capital city of my country, Zimbabwe, is Harare. The longitude and latitude of the capital city is 17.8639 Degrees S, 31.0297 Degrees East. The coldest month of Harare is July with an average monthly temperature of 64.8 F, while the warmest month is October with an average monthly temperature of 83.7 F. Based on this information, the annual range of temperature for my city is 18.9 F. The website in which I obtained this information is https://www.safaribookings.com/zimbabwe/climate.

    While some may think that Africa is basically flat, would be quite surprised. Africa has a wide range of altitude, and my country’s capital city is situated in the highlands. The altitude of Harare is 4,890 Ft above sea level. This high altitude keeps the temperature of the city relatively low and temperate. This is because the higher up you are, the less the atmospheric pressure and density is. This results in cooler temperatures because the relief of pressure means less kinetic energy of particles. Less radiation is also absorbed because of the smaller amount of particles per cube. The temperature drops about 4 degrees for every 1000 feet in elevation.

   One of the things that don’t impact my city is the ocean current. It is very much in the center of the southern tip of Africa. The Southern tip of Africa has very consistent warm ocean currents that basically engulf it. It does not have the trait, like the gulfstream, of pulling water of different temperatures up and down its coast. This keeps the interactions between the ocean and atmosphere very consistent.

     Based on the movie, The Inconvenient Truth, it is believed that the polar ice caps will melt and the sea level will rise up to 20ft. This will make Zimbabwe in closer proximity to the ocean which will most likely raise the average temperatures due to the relatively temperature stable properties of water. It will also decrease Harare’s relative altitude, and while it may not be much, this alone will raise the temperature of Harare. Due to global warming, Zimbabwe is already currently suffering from uncharacteristic droughts, and coupled with the effects of global warming, their water supply could disappear, along with many other countries. This will change the sub tropical climate drastically.

    Through this assignment, I have learned just exactly how and why the altitude keeps the climate of Zimbabwe very temperate in the highlands. This is due to lowering of the atmospheric pressure as well as the density. I also learned just exactly how the currents around the Southern tip of Africa flow and how relatively consistent it is comparatively to the gulfstream. Through these things, I was able to really predict what may happen to Zimbabwe if we don’t act together against global warming, and just how quickly things can change for the world’s climate.