Climate Changes in Zimbabwe

     The major impacts that effect my area include: livelihoods, health, and economics (Human and managed systems); terrestrial ecosystems (Biological systems); and Rivers, lakes, floods, and drought (Physical systems). The key regional risks are generally centered on Economics and drought, specifically unstable livelihoods due to the increasing drought and water shortage. Many people work in agriculture and without water, they will have no work.

       The whole African continent is forecasted to have a climate shift to a drier and warmer climate. Scientists attribute this to an increase in sea surface temperature. Warmer surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean have caused more inversion layers in the atmosphere. What this means for Africa is that clouds actually cannot form in these layers because the air sinks, thus preventing any sort of cloud formation. The less clouds there are means less water for rainfall.  However, there are many large regions in Africa with very little variability, and the data from the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is inaccurate. This makes the predictions of the scientists much harder for these regions.

     Africa unfortunately has a much bigger problem than just drought however. Much of Africa is extremely poor and their lack of resources and money make it hard for the region to deal with any obstacles. Many in my region are working in agriculture, and with the increase of the risk of drought, many will find it hard to produce food for their livelihood. This will increase the number of families that are starving on a continent that already must cope with mass starvation. One of the biggest things we need as humans is also at risk. Many African citizens do not have a reliable and clean water source, and it is thought that the number affected by this will reach the hundreds of millions in just a few years. Climate change is putting more stress on the problems this region already has. They are already struggling to deal with the problems at hand, and with the drought and inefficient infrastructure, Africa will not even be able to support its people.

     To me, I feel that the most interesting threat is the increase in the amount without access to clean water. They already have a huge problem making good water accessible to their population but with the increase in drought, what will happen? This increase in water shortage will also hit home economically. Most of Zimbabwe and Africa rely on agricultural means as sources of income and livelihood. This will decrease the amount of available food for the whole population, and eventually they will not be able to sustain their growing population, and their future becomes hazy.

Nordpil.com

www.climatecommunication.org

Severe Weather in Zimbabwe

Tornadoes:    

The obvious description of a tornado is a massive rotating column of air. How in fact though does this cyclone begin to form? The answer to this is simply wind shear, which is when winds at two different altitudes blow at different speeds creating wind shear. This causes a horizontal rotating column of air, which is called the mesocyclone. If this column of air meets with a supercell updraft, the spin tightens, and goes from horizontal to vertical. The rain and hail in the thunderstorm then causes the funnel to touch down to the ground, creating a tornado.

      In the U.S. most tornados move from Southwest to Northeast or West to East. This is because the tornado themselves move with the thunderstorm that they are associated with, and they move in such a way due to the warm high pressure gulf air meeting the cold air from the North creating an upper level jet stream through the country, which moves from West to East with a wave like pattern.

     Fortunately, Zimbabwe rarely experiences tornados if they ever do. I could not come up with an accurate number of tornadoes each year, but from reading some articles from national geographic, it seems that it is rare to even see one every few years, with most of the sightings being actually just waterspouts. The reason it is uncommon is because of Zimbabwe’s unique geographic location. It is protected from the NE trades and even though it is located relatively close to a very active spot in South Africa, the island of Madagascar actually protects Zimbabwe from the prevailing winds and diverts the air down south where tornados occur much more frequently. Each year, the U.S. experiences 1253 tornadoes on average.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/

    I personally think that tornados have increased over time due to global warming. This is because tornadoes are associated with warm, and moist air because that is what is necessary for formation of the thunderstorms that these tornados are attached to. So with the increase in global temperature due to our release of greenhouse gasses, we are directly increasing that amount of warm and moist air, which in turn increases storm production and the tornadoes that come with that.

Hurricanes:

    The three big requirements for a hurricane are Warm ocean temperatures of at least 80 degrees F or higher, a deep and warm ocean layer that reaches down to at least 200m, and the coriolis effect that is needed to start the rotation for a hurricane and this occurs between > 5 Degrees N, S.

    The three main regions where hurricanes occur are the Atlantic and the East Pacific (Hurricanes), in the Indian Ocean near Australia (Cyclones), and off the coast of China and Indonesia (Typhoons).

     The general path of Hurricanes in the US start from the Atlantic, then move West where they come closer to our coasts where they then begin to move in a Northeastern fashion. The reason they move in this fashion is because at the origin, the trade winds move it up and to the west. When it comes closer to the U.S. however, the hurricanes meet our prevailing Westerlies, which change its direction to Southwest to Northeast relatively to our country. Hurricanes are actually very uncommon in Zimbabwe as well. This again is because of the unique geographical location of Zimbabwe and how Madagascar protects it from the prevailing winds as well as diverts the moving air to lower latitudes. This basically spares Zimbabwe altogether from the destruction of Hurricanes so that makes the average number 0 hurricanes a year. The average number of hurricanes in the U.S. stands to be a little higher with an impressive range of anywhere between 2 – 12 a year in the Atlantic Basin.

http://scienceline.ucsb.edu/getkey.php?key=1086

Daily Weather in Harare

    My country’s capital city is Harare. My 3-day forecast will cover the following days: 4/04, 4/05, and 4/06. The forecasted high for my first day is 79 Degrees F, and the forecasted low is 60 Degrees F with a precipitation probability of 0%. The forecasted high of my second day is 79 Degrees F and the forecasted low is 62 Degrees F. The precipitation probability of this day is 5% early in the day and increases to 35% in the evening. The forecasted high for my third day is 81 Degrees F and the projected low is 61 Degrees F. The chance of precipitation is 20% in the day and up to 80% in the evening. The average pressure over the three days is 29.89 in. The pressure decreased over the three-day period. The average wind speed over the five-day period was 7 MPH. The wind speed decreases over the three-day period.

    There are clouds in Zimbabwe, however, they are very far away from the capital currently. Mosto f the southern area of the clouds are low and warm, but the northern section that is crossing into Zimbabwe seem to be colder. Around the capital currently, there actually is no precipitation around my capital currently. In a couple of days however, the precipitation has a very good chance of passing over Harare. The surface characteristics of the capital city seem to be relatively mountainous. There are some lakes to the left of the city and there are heavily forested areas next to those bodies of water. The city itself however seem to be relatively bare of vegetation.

    The isobar pressures I observe are a low center of 1012 and the high pressure of 1016 close to Zimbabwe. In the wider map, we can see higher pressures of 1020, and a high center of 1024 over the ocean. The low centers are actually right to the West of my country and also to the South. Right to the south of my country as well, there seems to be an area where a warm meets a cold front. Also in the zoomed out map, to the far Southwest, ther is another cold meeting a warm front a little further past the high center. Zimbabwe itself though is set in the 1016 pressure are and part of its western tip sits in the low of 1012.